This does not affect how I predict the USA election, because (1) the USA has a long history of data versus a one-shot event (2) the USA has many outcomes to calibrate on versus just one outcome (3) we have more data for the USA election than Brexit. But, we certainly learned that a segment of the UK voters really want immigration restrictions and trade barriers. And then there were two. While Bernie Sanders is technically still running, Donald Trump v. This lead may be surprisingly small to some people (Democrats) or surprisingly large to others (believers in fundamental models).
A lot more to follow in the next 6 months and 4 days. It has been so much fun, but there is a really good chance that the primary effectively ends in 30 minutes feeling nostalgic yet. A quick post on the state of the election at 191 until Election Day.
Also, just added Newt Gingrich into the Republican VP slot should keep an eye on him. We pushed some updates to the site this morning.
Musings will be brief updates on data, so I can reserve blog posts for more complete thoughts. Our polling reflects bleeding-edge research into cost-effective, fast, flexible, and accurate polling with an emphasis on politics and finance.
We infuse raw polling data with machine-learning-based post-polling analytics along with a host of other data. The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events.
PredictWise is run by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities. How do these match.
Prior to the end of the primary strategic or upset party voters will state they will not vote for the other possible nominees. That is helpful to their candidate. Clinton, but not vote or vote for Clinton v. Starting with the 2012 map, Clinton just needs to hold VA, OH, or FL. Pollster averages have her up by 12 pp in VA, 3 pp in OH, and 2 pp in FL. Real Clear has her up 13 pp in VA, 1.
This tends to have some predictive power, in addition to polls, at this early point. Clinton has more money in the bank and will likely out raise Trump by a lot. She will have a more unified GOTV game. And, she is extremely vetted. Trump, while in the public spotlight has not been vetted as closely (no one has). Politics When Will Trump Leave Office. We created PredictWise because we thought it would be interesting and informative for people to better understand the likelihood of certain major events occurring, and to have that information presented in a manner that is easy to comprehend.
But, the pending disruptions are taking on new forms. The relationship between people and machines are changing forever and our expectations for how the world will evolve are changing too.
To cope, CIOs in end-user organizations must learn to develop an appropriate pace for digital change.
Reappraisal of the models climate scientists use to determine future warming has revealed that less optimistic estimates are more realistic.
The results suggest that the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to keep global average temperatures from rising by 2C, may be overly ambitious. Amid a flood in Islampur, Jamalpur, Bangladesh, a woman on a raft searches for somewhere dry to take shelter. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable places in the world to sea level rise, which is expected to make tens of millions of people homeless by 2050. Hanna Petursdottir examines a cave inside the Svinafellsjokull glacier in Iceland, which she said had been growing rapidly.
Since 2000, the size of glaciers on Iceland has reduced by 12 per cent.The list of input fields' ids used to create the batch anomaly score. The new line character used as line break in the file that contains the anomaly scores. In a future version, you might be able to share batch anomaly scores with other co-workers or, if desired, make them publicly available.
A description of the status of the batch anomaly score. This is the date and time in which the batch anomaly score was updated with microsecond precision. A status code that reflects the status of the batch anomaly score. Example: true category optional The category that best describes the batch topic distribution.
None of the fields in the dataset Specifies the fields in the dataset to be excluded to create the batch topic distribution. Example: "my new batch topic distribution" newline optional The new line character that you want to get as line break in the generated csv file: "LF", "CRLF".
This will be 201 upon successful creation of the batch topic distribution and 200 afterwards. Make sure that you check the code that comes with the status attribute to make sure that the batch topic distribution creation has been completed without errors. This is the date and time in which the batc topic distribution was created with microsecond precision. True when the batch topic distribution has been created in the development mode.
The list of fields's ids that were excluded to build the batch topic distribution. The list of input fields' ids used to create the batch topic distribution.
The new line character used as line break in the file that contains the topic distributions. In a future version, you might be able to share batch topic distributions with other co-workers or, if desired, make them publicly available. A description of the status of the batch topic distribution. This is the date and time in which the batc topic distribution was updated with microsecond precision.
A status code that reflects the status of the batch topic distribution. Example: 1 combiner optional Specifies the method that should be used to combine predictions when a non-boosted ensemble is used to create the evaluation. None of the fields in the dataset Specifies the fields in the dataset to be excluded to create the evaluation. Example: "MySample" tags optional A list of strings that help classify and index your evaluation. This will be 201 upon successful creation of the evaluation and 200 afterwards.
Make sure that you check the code that comes with the status attribute to make sure that the evaluation creation has been completed without errors. This is the date and time in which the evaluation was created with microsecond precision. Specifies the type of strategy that a model will follow when a missing value needed to continue with inference in the model is found. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 to specify respectively whether the evaluation is from a single model, an ensemble, a logistic regression, or or a time series model.Sudo
By default it is based on the name of model, ensemble, logistic regression, or time series and the dataset used. NEW ordering filterable, sortable The order used to chose instances from the dataset to evaluate the model. In a future version, you will be able to share evaluations with other co-workers or, if desired, make them publicly available. The result of the evaluation.TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1465325 : 1823 Italy - Serie A1. Inter Milano15123033 : 10392.
SSC Napoli15122135 : 10383. Juventus Torino15121241 : 14374. AS Roma14111227 : 10345. SS Lazio Roma14102235 : 1632 France - Ligue 11. Paris Saint - Germain16132148 : 12412. Olympique Lyonnais1695240 : 18323. AS Monaco16102437 : 16324.
Olympique de Marseille1695232 : 19325.Descendants of the sun dramabeans ep 7
FC Nantes Atlantique1683515 : 1627 Netherlands - Eredivisie1. PSV Eidhoven14130141 : 14392. AZ Alkmaar14101324 : 15313. Ajax Amsterdam1492343 : 14294. FC Zwolle1475220 : 13265. Feyenoord Rotterdam1474324 : 1425 Belgium - Jupiler League1. Club Brugge KV17132238 : 16412. Royal Charleroi SK17105229 : 17353. RSC Anderlecht Brussel17104328 : 18344.
KAA Gent1774624 : 1625 Czech Republic - Gambrinus liga1. SK Slavia Praha1695227 : 7323. SK Sigma Olomouc1695223 : 10324. FC Slovan Liberec1693424 : 16305. AC Sparta Praha1684421 : 1228 Polen - Ekstraklasa1.
Legia Warszawa18102624 : 19323. SSA Korona Kielce1886430 : 19304. Jagiellonia Bialystok1886423 : 22305. KKS Lech Poznan1878326 : 1529 Portugal - Primeira Liga1. FC Porto13103031 : 5332. Sporting CP Lisboa13103027 : 8333. SL Benfica Lisboa1393129 : 8304.When you know to walk away. Use our tips and tools to keep your betting well played. View video transcriptsWe encourage a balanced approach to gambling by providing practical tips on how to gamble responsibly.
This information should not replace or be considered as an alternative to professional advice. If you need help, please call Gambler's Help on 1800 858 858. This service operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and is free and confidential. Staying in control Signs of harm Gambling calculator We encourage a balanced approach to gambling by providing practical tips on how to gamble responsibly. Set money and time limits and stick to them. Keep track of your spend. Sticking to limits means you'll have more time and money to do other things you enjoy, like going on a holiday with your family, or buying something you want.
Set your budget and take only that amount of cash with you, leaving your bank cards at home. Gambling can be an expensive form of entertainment. If you want to spend less take a look at our tools for money management. Keep your gambling an enjoyable activity by taking regular breaks. When you take a break, try to leave the gambling area rather than just the table, pokie machine or screen. Taking breaks is a fantastic way to allow you some extra reflection time on whether you should keep gambling.Pond sealer
When catching up with friends, make sure it's not always about gambling. The way you behave can influence your friends.
By not putting off your friends for a flutter, you can help them do the same. Gambling is often seen as a social activity but it's important to make sure you maintain balance with other leisure activities, hobbies or interests in your life. Alcohol can also cloud your judgement, so keep your drinks in check too. Share Back to top Fight for the real you Social media Disclaimer Privacy Copyright Sitemap Accessibility Contact Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation The foundation acknowledges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as the Traditional Custodians of the land and acknowledges and pays respect to their Elders, past and present.
BettingExpert welcomes all visitors by introducing itself as the social network of sports betting. The past months I have become a lot more active at social media and generally on the internet. I am discovering my creative side of myself, as I realize that writing about gambling is a lot more fun than gambling itself.
People interested in online gambling and specifically in sports betting usually search for betting tips. Not how to improve their betting skills, unfortunately. And finding the best tipster online is promising exactly that. Because I am not. Because I am not even a tipster.
Yet, people are looking for betting tips. But my philosophy does not allow me posting any tips, without explaining first my reasoning for my betting tips.
I have shown my reasoning and betting philosophy in my Greek blog. That is why I joined BettingExpert, which promises to become the social network of sports betting.
If it succeeds, more people will see my tips, will join the discussion and eventually, connect with me. So, today I posted my first betting tip. My first attempt to publish a betting tip failed miserably. This is the message I got when I clicked on the publish button, after spending at least half an hour to learn the whereabouts of the post tip form.
I moved on and found another game I was happy to give out a tip for. It was the friendly game between Mechelen and Oud-Heverlee. Load the so-called post tip form. By making the appropriate selection, the rest of the fields are automatically filled with the corresponding details. Next comes our prediction. Describe your betting tip. You also have to decide the bookmaker you are preferring to bet with. Although it makes no sense to me to choose a bookmaker with lower odds than the competition, you still have a variety of choice.
Finally, pick your stake from a scale of 1 to 10. My choice is always flat betting and I elect the maximum stake available. They just pick tens of games so that they can brag when they succeed in some of them later on. BettingExpert does an excellent job here as far as I am concerned, driving away the less talkative tipsters. True, if you want to be remembered as a social network, you need communicative members in your network.
Time to publish your tip. By now you must have spent at least 5 or so minutes, filling the form. Pay attention to every detail you see at this page.
Will BettingExpert succeed in becoming the social network of sports betting. For the record, I lost that tip (draw).
I will deliver my posts straight to your inbox as soon as they're published.Love for Monkey - 2017 Be communicative and respect yourself as well as your partner. Health for Monkey - 2017 Avoid smoking and alcohol, and instead focus on relaxing and resting your mind and spirit.
Years of the Monkey 2016, 2004, 1992, 1980, 1968, 1956, 1944, 1932. Compatible animals for Monkey Snake, Rat, Dragon Your personality: Monkey 'Monkey' people are extremely intelligent, witty, fast learners, manipulative and competitive. Click on your zodiac animal sign to obtain your daily reading. Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Protected and monitored by DMCA. World Earthquakes is using only statistical analysis in order to get most efficient earthquake forecasting analysis.
These rules are designed to help give a better understanding of what behavior is expected and make your experience more enjoyable and safe. No discussion of any illegal activity or threats of violence (ie. No use of explicit, racist, obscene or vulgar language, images or messages.
No posts that attack, insult, flame, defame, or abuse others. Respect other members opinions regarding treatment decisions. No advertising or links to advertising or links to untrusted sources or links not related to earth science or "Spam" is permitted. Advertising or spam is defined as posting a link for the purpose of selling, soliciting or promoting something.
Links promoting fundraising, advocacy, etc. Sharing of earth science trusted links to helpful and relevant web sites and resources is allowed if they are not used for a promotional purpose.
No posts of copyrighted material, lengthy articles, or posts of an overtly political or religious nature (ie. Do not post offline personal contact information (ie. This is to protect your security and identity.Editors' Note:This post was originally published August 20, 2014, and has been updated.
By learning about the signs and symptoms of smartphone and Internet addiction and the ways to break free of the habit, you can better balance your life, online and off. Addiction to social networking, dating apps, texting, and messaging can extend to the point where virtual, online friends become more important than real-life relationships. While the Internet can be a great place to meet new people, reconnect with old friends, or even start romantic relationships, online relationships are not a healthy substitute for real life interactions.
Online friends tend to exist in a bubble, not subject to the same demands or stresses as messy real-world relationships. Since few real-life relationships can compete with these neat, virtual relationships, you may find yourself spending more and more time with online friends, retreating from your real world family and friends.
Compulsive use of dating apps can change your focus to short-term hookups instead of developing long-term relationships. Online compulsions, such as gaming, gambling, stock trading, online shopping, or bidding on auction sites like eBay can often lead to financial and job-related problems.
While gambling addiction has been a well-documented problem for years, the availability of Internet gambling has made gambling far more accessible. Compulsive stock trading or online shopping can be just as financially and socially damaging. Compulsive web surfing, watching videos, playing games, searching Google, or checking news feeds can lead to lower productivity at work or school and isolate you for hours at a time.
All this compulsive use of the Internet and smartphone apps can cause you to neglect other aspects of your life, from real-world relationships to hobbies and social pursuits. Compulsive use of Internet pornography, sexting, nude-swapping, adult chat rooms, or messaging services can impact negatively on your real-life intimate relationships and overall emotional health.
While online pornography and cybersex addictions are types of sexual addiction, the Internet makes it more accessible, relatively anonymous, and very convenient.
Excessive use of sex and dating apps that facilitate casual sex can make it more difficult to develop long-term intimate relationships or damage an existing relationship.Itchy regrowth after brazilian wax
While you can experience these impulse-control problems with a laptop or even desktop computer, the size and convenience of smartphones and tablets means that we can take them just about anywhere and gratify our compulsions. In fact, studies suggest that most of us are rarely ever more than five feet from our smartphones. So what causes our obsession with these always-connected devices. Smartphones, tablets, or the Internet can be addictive because their use, just like the use of drugs and alcohol, can trigger the release of the brain chemical dopamine and alter mood.
And just like using drugs and alcohol, you can rapidly build up tolerance so that it takes more and more time in front of these screens to derive the same pleasurable reward. While heavy phone use can often be symptomatic of other underlying problemssuch as stress, anxiety, depression, or lonelinessit can also exacerbate these problems.SAP Tutorial for beginners - SAP ERP
Staring at your phone will deny you the face-to-face interactions that can help to meaningfully connect you to others, alleviate anxiety, and boost your mood. Increasing loneliness and depression. While it may seem that losing yourself online will temporarily make feelings such as loneliness, depression, and boredom evaporate into thin air, it can actually make you feel even worse.
A 2014 study found a correlation between high social media usage and depression and anxiety. Users, especially teens, tend to compare themselves unfavorably with their peers on social media, promoting feelings of loneliness and depression. One researcher found that the mere presence of a phone in a work place tends to make people more anxious and perform poorly on given tasks.
The heavier the phone user, the greater the anxiety experienced. Using a smartphone for work often means work bleeds into your home and personal life. You feel the pressure to always be on, never out of touch from work. This need to continually check and respond to email can contribute to higher stress levels and even burnout.
Exacerbating attention deficit disorders. The constant stream of messages and information from a smartphone can overwhelm the brain and make it impossible to focus attention on any one thing for more than a few minutes without feeling compelled to move on to something else.
Diminishing your ability to concentrate and think deeply or creatively. The persistent buzz, ping or beep of your smartphone can distract you from important tasks, slow your work, and interrupt those quiet moments that are so crucial to creativity and problem solving. Excessive smartphone use can disrupt your sleep, which can have a serious impact on your overall mental health.
It can impact your memory, affect your ability to think clearly, and reduce your cognitive and learning skills.
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